The operating system

1. As explained in the page about the anatomy of the economy, the monetary system to the economy is like the operating system to a computer.  Just as applications run on the computer's operating system, economic institutions run on the economy's monetary system.
2. The monetary (or operating) system that applied during the Bretton Woods era* used fixed exchange rates and had two sources of money:

   • Increased foreign reserves; and
   • increased bank credit. 

3. Money from increased foreign reserves generally represented an increase in income (from exports) above spending (on imports).  When the money created from these savings were eventually spent on imports, foreign reserves would decline and this money would cease to exist.  This form of money is endowed money. 
4. Note that spending on domestic goods and services always equals the income from the sale of domestic goods and services.  (The spending of one person in the nation is the income of another person in the nation.)  If national expenditure is to be greater than national income, it must mean that spending on imports are greater than income from exports.
5. Money from increased bank lending (lending greater than loan repayments and other forms of saving such as changes in bank capital) enables not only the borrower to spend more than their income, but the nation.  This money is unendowed money.
6. The growth in bank credit causes spending to rise and increases imports above exports, depleting foreign reserves. 
7. At that point, the money ceases to exist.  Also, it means that the endowed money created by the original increase in foreign reserves has lost its asset backing.  The bank's asset backing (the borrower's debt) still remains.  We can consider that the remaining money has been neutralized: that is, the excess spending caused by the bank lending has now been exercised and neutralized. The country now has additional money (from the original growth in foreign reserves).   The asset backing of that money is now the debt to the bank.
8. As a general rule, countries in the Bretton Woods environment allow banks to increase lending provided that the lending does not deplete foreign reserves. 
9. Excessive bank credit would deplete foreign reserves or raise foreign debt.

Operating system post Bretton Woods

10. The US government abandoned the Bretton Woods Agreement because it was borrowing excessively from the banking system (to finance the Vietnam War) and this was depleting foreign reserves.  Floating the exchange rate removed the pressure from the Federal Reserve on President Nixon to raise taxes to reduce the government's reliance on bank credit. The floating exchange rate was a scheme to preserve US foreign reserves.  It prevented the growth of bank credit from depleting official foreign reserves.  But it did not prevent the underlying transfer of entitlements and obligations.
11. Also, the floating exchange rate system prevented the accumulation of foreign reserves.  All international transactions were required to be traded on a foreign exchange market and those wanting to buy foreign currency were required to trade with those wanting to sell foreign currency to buy domestic currency.   
12. Hence, there was no opportunity to create money from the growth of foreign reserves (i.e., from national savings). 
13. This meant that bank credit was the only source of additional money. 
14. As considered in paragraphs 5 and 6 above, money from bank credit causes spending to exceed income.  The only way a country can spend more than it earns is to import more than it exports.
15. Yet the foreign exchange market requires international receipts and payments to be equal.
16. The only way that the constraints on the foreign exchange market and the monetary system (in paragraph 15) is reconciled is if the  international capital inflows (debt and equity) are greater than international capital outflows by the amount of the growth in bank credit.
17. In other words, the net capital inflow must equal the growth in bank credit.  This is evident for the USA, Australia and New Zealand.  It was the case also for the Philippines until the Central Bank of the Philippines became aware of this relationship and modified its monetary system.  

Implications

18. The implications of this are extremely significant for the economy. While the Bretton Woods system was in force, the process of neutralizing the money created by the growth of bank credit was by reducing national savings in the form of foreign debt.  The net outcome was an economic environment in which international trade was relatively balanced: the additional imports being offset by foreign reserves generated from additional exports.  
19. In the post Bretton Woods economy, it is not possible to neutralise the money created by the growth of bank credit.  Yet unendowed money continues to cause national spending to be greater than national income.  Therefore it produces an economic environment in which international trade is unbalanced.  The only way that the inherent excess spending can be met is if there are additional imports and these are paid for by increasing foreign debt. 
20. This money cannot be said to be neutralized: instead we can call it indebted money.  This money not has not only a domestic debt; it has a foreign debt.  But if the inherent excess demand in the unendowed money were not met by foreign debt, the unendowed money would be likely to cause hyper-inflation.  So, it is better that unendowed money be transformed into indebted money than being left as unendowed.
21. Even so, the indebted money created by the growth bank credit causes some inflation whereas the endowed money created from national savings (the growth of foreign reserves) and neutralized money  reflect growth in income and do not have the same inflationary effect.  (See Money and Inflation)
22. Inflation occurs when the growth in the money supply exceeds the growth of the economy.  Under the Bretton Woods arrangements, monetary growth from rising foreign reserves directly increased national income and the money supply.  Therefore, it raised both the numerator (money) and the denominator (GDP). So inflation was low. 
23. Unendowed money and indebted money (from bank credit) raises the numerator (money) but they do not directly increase the denominator in the same way as money from the growth of foreign reserves. Thus these forms of money are more likely to cause inflation.
24. When there is inflation, the economy needs more money to grow.  The post Bretton Woods era began with a recession called the "Oil Crisis".  This recession was caused by the inadequate growth of the money supply which was constrained by the banking rules which were previously necessary to restrain the growth of bank credit.  Consequently, the financial system was "deregulated" to allow banks to increase lending and provide more money to stimulate the economy.  In the post Bretton Woods environment, the growth of bank credit results in the simultaneous growth of two types of debt:
    • domestic debt, in the form of bank debt; and
    • international debt.
25. Therefore, besides the inflationary effect, there is a need for central banks to regulate the growth of bank credit to minimise the international imbalance.   
26. Monetary growth under the Bretton Woods system had the capacity to generate rapid growth, full employment and low inflation.  Monetary growth under the post Bretton Woods system does not have the same capacity.
27. Furthermore, as the economy continually needs more money (bank debt) to grow, the quality of the debt declines over time.  This became blatantly clear when the US monetary system collapsed in what was called the Global Financial Crisis.
28. While the Australian monetary system has not collapsed in the same way, it is heading down the same direction.  As in the USA, Australia is now relying on the poor to borrow, encouraging them through programs such as the first home buyers scheme.
29. Unless Australia changes its monetary system, it will come to rely on banks lending to people who cannot repay to facilitate economic growth.  At that point, the monetary system will collapse, as in the USA.
30. If Australia tries to maintain the present monetary system and avoid lending to the poor, the consequential lack of economic growth is likely to cause many borrowers to default and that would lead to the collapse of the monetary system. 
31. Another implication is that the rate of economic growth has declined in the post Bretton Woods era.  Consequently, the growth in real wages have declined also. 
32. While the world has experienced globalization, trade is lower than it otherwise would have been.  This is because the real exchange rates of countries like Australia and the US have increased, making their products less competitive on the world market, reducing their exports and also reducing their income, which would otherwise have generated more imports.  That is, both exports and imports (trade) would have been greater within a Bretton Woods environment than they have been in the post Bretton Woods environment.  (The increase in the real exchange rate can be seen in the proportion of GDP spent on imports.) 
33. The post Bretton Woods system is unsustainable in the long term.  The US government has bailed out the financial system following the Global Financial Crisis.  However, the economy continues to rely on the financial system to expand the money supply.  So far, this is not happening and bank credit in the US is declining, contributing to a major US recession. (Note that this is unchartered territory for the US economy.)
34. If the US government attempts to borrow to stimulate its economy, it may be able prolong its life before its eventual demise.
35. It seems foolish that the US government discarded a stable monetary system in order to improve the re-election prospects of President Richard Nixon.  This short sightedness has meant that the US economy has collapsed and now stands on the brink of disaster. 
36. There are feasible solutions this monetary dilemma, such as the optimum exchange rate system or the guided exchange rate system.  Whatever happens, the coming few years will be an interesting period for economists.
37. Solutions, such as the optimum exchange rate system would enable countries to neutralize their indebted money.  They create foreign reserves in the banking system that can be used to repay private sector debt (both bank and non-bank).  When this is done, the foreign debt is eliminated in much the same way as imports neutralize unendowed money.
38. A country converting its indebted money to neutralized money would experience rapid growth, high employment levels and low inflation.  The rapid growth comes from exporting more than is imported and raising GDP.  This leads to high employment.  However, as production or supply is greater than spending or demand, the country does not experience inflationary pressure.        

 

* 1945 to March 1973.

 

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  Last update: 16 March 2010